Documents

SCAR Executive Committee Meeting
30-31 July, Plovdiv, Bulgaria

SCAR EXCOM 2019 Paper 2: List of Papers

Agenda Item: all
Person Responsible: Secretariat

SCAR Executive Committee Meeting
30-31 July, Plovdiv, Bulgaria

SCAR EXCOM 2019 Paper 3: Report from AntClim21 SRP

Antarctic Climate Change in the 21st Century (AntClim21), 2018-19 Report

Agenda Item: 4
Person Responsible: Tom Bracegirdle

Report Authors: Tom Bracegirdle (UK), Nancy Bertler (New Zealand), Alia Khan (USA), Gerhard Krinner (France), Paul Mayewski (USA), Marilyn Raphael (USA), Joellen Russell (USA).

Summary

This has been an active year for AntClim21 with a number of key activities. These have all helped to increase the visibility of AntClim21 and SCAR and provide opportunities for early career researchers.

• A key activity over the last year has been to write a paper based on discussions at the Past2Projections workshop at POLAR2018 in Davos (Bracegirdle et al., 2019). The paper is on the topic of using long-term observational and paleo-proxy reconstructions to improve model projections of Antarctic and Southern Ocean climate change. The paper represents a significant collaboration with the PAIS SRP and the PAGES CLIVASH2k project.
• The link to CLIVASH2k came from co-sponsoring of a joint workshop in September 2018 on ‘Climate variability in Antarctica and the Southern Hemisphere over the past 2000 years’ (Thomas, 2019, https://doi.org/10.22498/pages.27.1.30).
• Whilst following up on the Past2Projections workshop, significant effort has also been put towards preparations for a major workshop in late June 2019. The workshop is on CMIP6 21st century projections and predictions for Antarctica and the Southern Ocean. The CMIP6 dataset is the coordinated climate modelling effort that will feed into the IPCC Sixth Assessment Report (AR6). The aim of the workshop is to help ensure that the Antarctic and Southern Ocean climate science communities make a significant contribution to AR6.
• A fourth major activity this year has been a collaboration with one of the endorsed CMIP6 projects; the Ice Sheet Model Intercomparison Project (ISMIP6). The main contribution from AntClim21 has been to provide advice on the use of climate model projections in calculating future ice sheet change (our focus being the Antarctic component of ISMIP6). AntClim21 has participated in videoconferences and an ISMIP6 workshop at the AGU Fall Meeting and ISMIP6 representatives will also attend the June 2019 workshop.

SCAR Executive Committee Meeting
30-31 July, Plovdiv, Bulgaria

SCAR EXCOM 2019 Paper 4: Report from AntEco SRP

State of the Antarctic Ecosystem (AntEco), 2018-19 Report

Agenda Item: 4
Person Responsible: Huw Griffiths & Jan Strugnell

Report Authors: Jan Strugnell (Australia) & Huw Griffiths (UK), Steering Committee

Summary

AntEco has been active in several initiatives since the last report to Delegates – i) the SCAR OSC 2018 in Davos, Switzerland, ii) planning finalization activities and iii) the Marine Ecosystem Assessment of the Southern Ocean. AntEco continues to coordinate research in line with the objectives of the implementation plan and disseminate the findings through scientific publications and outreach.

AntEco is now firmly focused on the upcoming conclusion of the programme with a significant proportion of the 2019 budget this year being dedicated to workshops and meetings that will produce legacy products for the programme. For Davos SCAR OSC 2018 in we ensured that the majority of our 2018 budget was spent on travel support for participants (with particular attention to less well-represented SCAR member nations and early career researchers). Our 2020 activities will once again mostly revolve around the SCAR OSC in Hobart and facilitating the attendance of the meeting by ECRs and developing Antarctic nations.

AntEco has also had several new significant contributions to the Antarctic Environments Portal on important topics (marine plastics, marine biodiversity, pathways for the introduction of terrestrial non-native species, non-native microbial introductions, specially protected and managed areas in Antarctica (updated) and the status of known non-native species introductions and impacts (updated)).

SCAR Executive Committee Meeting
30-31 July, Plovdiv, Bulgaria

SCAR EXCOM 2019 Paper 5: Report from AnT-ERA SRP

Antarctic Thresholds – Ecosystem Resilience and Adaptation (AnT-ERA), 2018-19 Report

Agenda Item: 4
Person Responsible: Julian Gutt

Report Authors: Julian Gutt with contributions from SSC members (from Argentina, Canada, Germany, Italy, Japan, New Zealand, Portugal, South Korea, Spain, UK, USA).

Summary

1. Capacity building. (a) A course on “Biological Processes in Antarctic Ecosystems” in Buenos Aires, Argentina, for 44 graduate, PhD students and post-docs from ten countries held by ten AnT-ERA lecturers and local experts, hosted by the Instituto Antártico Argentino and made possible by SCAR support.

2. Support for early-career scientists. (a) Most of the 2018 budget used for spring course for ECS, see above. (b) In addition, nine mini-grants were awarded in 2018 to ECS from six countries.

3. Scientific output. (a) A half-day workshop on “Antarctic and Arctic Ecosystems“ chaired by AnT-ERA (Gutt) and IASC/Marine Working group (Kedra & Cooper) with approx. 100 participants as side event of the 2018 OSC. The protocol provides the basis for a unique SCAR manuscript to be published in 2019.

4. Dissemination. (a) AnT-ERA contributed significantly to the 2019 ACCE update to the ATCM, (b) to the first Global Assessment of the IPBES, (c) to SOOS initiatives. (d) The article on “Antarctic Marine Biodiversity” was published online by the “Antarctic Environments Portal“ with contributions from AnT-ERA. (e) Announcements for events and job opportunities are sent regularly, approx. twice per months, to the approx. 520 mailing list members.

5. Final scientific outcome of AnT-ERA. A synthesis workshop “Most important findings 2010-2020 on biological processes in Antarctica and the Southern Ocean” in Coimbra, Portugal is in an advanced stage of preparation. The structure will provide the basis for a paper, being a unique SCAR output, eventually partly in assessment style, to be published before the 2020 OSC, where the results are to be presented.

6. Miscellaneous. (a) Support of the 2018 OSC with key notes and chairman-ship of sessions. (b) International events were co-chaired by AnT-ERA SC members and key notes were given, e.g. on sea-ice and polar environments.

SCAR Executive Committee Meeting
30-31 July, Plovdiv, Bulgaria

SCAR EXCOM 2019 Paper 6: Report from PAIS SRP

Past Antarctic Ice Sheet Dynamics (PAIS), 2018-19 Report

Agenda Item: 4
Person Responsible: Tim Naish

Report Authors: Tim Naish (NZ) and Laura De Santis (Italy)

Summary

The Past Antarctic Ice Sheet (PAIS) programme aims to improve understanding of the sensitivity of East, West, and Antarctic Peninsula Ice Sheets to a broad range of climatic and oceanic conditions and to improve confidence in predictions of ice sheet and sea level response to future climate change and ocean warming.

PAIS has delivered above expectation with respect to the implementation plan, and is now completing final products, which are outlined further in this report. Following a very successful strategic planning workshop in Trieste, Italy, in 2017 the PAIS community have produced a strategic White Paper (http://www.scar-pais.org/index.php/documents/13-pais-conference-2017-white-paper/file) that identifies priorities for future research. The white paper recognises the importance of transdisciplinary approach incorporating geoscience, physical sciences and biological sciences in understanding and quantifying the Antarctic ice sheet contribution to past and future global sea-level change, from improved understanding of climate, ocean and solid Earth interactions and feedbacks with the ice.   It also recognizes the importance of understanding the global consequences and impacts of Antarctic change so that decision-makers can better anticipate and assess the risk in order to manage and adapt to sea-level rise and evaluate mitigation pathways. Consequently, the PAIS white paper has been influential in the development of a new SRP – Antarctic Ice Dynamics and Sea Level (AIDSL).

Since SCAR Delegates Meeting in 2018 at Davos, Switzerland, PAIS reports the following highlights.

1. High-profile scientific papers (9 of the 11 highlighted papers were published in Nature journals) and show:
   • New evidence for the (in)stability of the marine margins of East Antarctic Ice Sheet under 300-500ppm atmospheric CO₂
   • Antarctic futures under high and low emissions pathways and implications for global sea-level rise, ocean change and biological systems.
   • The importance of solid Earth responses and feedbacks in controlling ice sheet dynamics
   • A new integrated model of Antarctic ice sheet evolution over the last 50 million years reconciling the roles of orbital forcing and atmospheric carbon dioxide with implications for future change
   • A review of the complex processes that occur at the boundaries of ice sheets (bedrock, ocean and atmosphere) and integrated data-model approaches that need to be the focus of future research.

2. Two integrated ocean discovery programme (IODP) drilling expeditions successfully completed (valued at ~$60M USD) to the Amundsen and Scotia seas were co-ordinated and led by the PAIS community. The sediment cores will provide an unprecedented level of insight on how the marine-based sectors of the Antarctic ice sheet responded to climates and atmospheric CO₂ levels predicted for this century including model simulations of the possibility of a tipping point being crossed at about 2 degrees C of global warming (the Paris IPCC agreement’s Target) that could lead to irreversible ice sheet loss.

3. The PAIS community have been active in outreach, engagement and ECR development. A highlight has been the IODP-PAIS Antarctic marine sediment core school at the IODP Gulf Coast Repository at Texas A&M University in June which has co-funded 24 students and ECRs (12 non USA and 12 USA), to learn how to characterise, sample and interpret marine sediment cores form the Antarctic margin.

SCAR Executive Committee Meeting
30-31 July, Plovdiv, Bulgaria

SCAR EXCOM 2019 Paper 7: Report from SERCE SRP

Solid Earth Response and influence on Cryospheric Evolution (SERCE), 2018-19 Report

Agenda Item: 4
Person Responsible: Pippa Whitehouse

Report Authors: Pippa Whitehouse (UK) and Matt King (Australia)

Summary

• Preparation well underway for a 5-day SERCE-funded Glacial Isostatic Adjustment (GIA) training school to be held in Gävle, Sweden in late August 2019. 40 participants have been selected from ~160 applicants, no limit on additional numbers that can join via a virtual participation platform. 12 lecturers from 9 countries. On-site participants nearly all ECRs, from 15 different countries, we have very close to 50:50 gender balance. Additional financial support from POLENET (NSF-funded), EGU, IACS (IUGG-funded), and DTU Space has made it possible for us to provide nearly 100% travel and subsistence funding to all participants and lecturers.

• Preparation also well underway for a GIA workshop in Ottawa in late September 2019. Exciting line-up of invited speakers, with even split of male/female and ECR/more established scientists. $10k SERCE funds assigned to provide travel support for ECRs, additional funds to cover local costs are provided by POLAR Knowledge Canada.

• SERCE Chief Officers have recently provided letters of support to 2 large grant applications (headed up by Joachim Jacobs and Florence Colleoni, respectively), and to Adam Martin in support of a book on ‘The Antarctic Mantle’ to be co-edited with Wouter van der Wal.

• SERCE-facing sessions will take place at IUGG 2019, ISAES 2019, and AGU 2019. Joint Chief Office Pippa Whitehouse is also on the International Science Organising Committee for SCAR OSC 2020.

• We have formed a sub-committee on Antarctic Geothermal Heat Flux, headed up by Jacqui Halpin, Alex Burton-Johnson and Ricarda Dziadek, a dedicated session and a side meeting will take place at ISAES 2019.

• Publication (co-authored by SERCE Chief Officers) of an article on the current state of knowledge on Antarctic Ice Sheet-solid Earth feedbacks, and identification of future research priorities.

SCAR Executive Committee Meeting
30-31 July, Plovdiv, Bulgaria

SCAR EXCOM 2019 Paper 8: Report from AIDSL PPG

Antarctic Ice Dynamics and Sea Level Change (AIDSL) – Draft Science and Implementation Plan

Agenda Item: 5
Person Responsible: Tim Naish

Summary

This is a draft Science and Implementation Plan (SIP) for a new Scientific Research Programme (SRP), provisionally entitled Antarctic Ice Dynamics and Global Sea Level (AIDSL). The SRP addresses one of the highest priority issues facing climate change science – the question of Antarctica’s uncertain contribution to sea level change. It utilises an integrated multidisciplinary approach combining geoscience, physical sciences and biological sciences, of the way in which interactions between the ocean, atmosphere and cryosphere have influenced ice-sheets in the past, are influencing observed ice sheet changes, and how they will contribute to future global sea level rise.

The goal of the SRP is, therefore, to “quantify the Antarctic ice sheet contribution to past and future global sea-level change, from improved understanding of climate, ocean and solid Earth interactions and feedbacks with the ice, so that decision-makers can better anticipate and assess the risk in order to manage and adapt to sea-level rise and evaluate mitigation pathways”.

SCAR Executive Committee Meeting
30-31 July, Plovdiv, Bulgaria

SCAR EXCOM 2019 Paper 9: Report from AntClim^NOW PPG

Near-term Variability and Prediction of the Antarctic Climate System (AntClim^NOW) – Draft Science and Implementation Plan

Agenda Item: 5
Person Responsible: Tom Bracegirdle and David Bromwich

Summary

Many of the most important questions in Antarctic and Southern Ocean climate science are related to understanding present-day climatic trends and estimating future change in the near term (present day to mid 21st century). This topic is a key gap in the scope of the current SCAR SRPs due to its importance to Antarctic stakeholders both from a global and regional perspective. It is timely to fill this gap due to recent advances and current developments in relevant areas of climate / earth-system modelling, observations, climate proxy reconstructions and data science.

In terms of the SCAR Strategic Plan, the proposed SRP would address a number of scientific priorities identified as part of the SCAR Horizon Scan. It would widen relevance to a broader spectrum of Antarctic climate scientists, connect communities and enhance progress across this spectrum. The proposed approach involves three main scientific objectives: (i) Quantify linkages between Antarctic climate variability and the rest of the planet, with a focus on links to the tropics; (ii) Explain the contemporary annual-to-decadal time-scale trends in the Antarctic climate system and (iii) Determine the near-term predictability of the Antarctic climate system.

A further two objectives are to (iv) enhance collaboration between the science disciplines and (v) develop effective communication of the latest scientific results to bodies, such as the CEP and CCAMLR, concerned with how a changing climate may impact the governance and management of the Antarctic.

The necessary expertise is represented in the core membership, which currently comprises 31 members from 14 countries, representing the physical and biological sciences. Their range of expertise includes atmosphere, ocean, ice, chemistry and biology.