Documents

ATCM XXXV and CEP XV 2012, Hobart, Australia

Attachment to Working Paper 5 (WP005)

ATT009 to WP005: Continent-wide Risk Assessment for the Establishment of Nonindigenous Species in Antarctica (Attachment)

Journal article:

Chown, S. L. et al., 2012. Continent-wide risk assessment for the establishment of nonindigenous species in Antarctica. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (PNAS), 109 (13): 4938-4943. doi:10.1073/pnas.1119787109

Abstract:

Invasive alien species are among the primary causes of biodiversity change globally, with the risks thereof broadly understood for most regions of the world. They are similarly thought to be among the most signi cant conservation threats to Antarctica, especially as climate change proceeds in the region. However, no compre- hensive, continent-wide evaluation of the risks to Antarctica posed by such species has been undertaken. Here we do so by sampling, identifying, and mapping the vascular plant propagules carried by all categories of visitors to Antarctica during the International Polar Year’s rst season (2007–2008) and assessing propagule establishment likelihood based on their identity and origins and on spatial variation in Antarctica’s climate. For an eval- uation of the situation in 2100, we use modeled climates based on the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s Special Report on Emissions Scenarios Scenario A1B [Nakićenović N, Swart R, eds (2000) Special Report on Emissions Scenarios: A Special Report of Working Group III of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK)]. Visitors car- rying seeds average 9.5 seeds per person, although as vectors, scientists carry greater propagule loads than tourists. Annual tour- ist numbers (33,054) are higher than those of scientists (7,085), thus tempering these differences in propagule load. Alien species establishment is currently most likely for the Western Antarctic Peninsula. Recent founder populations of several alien species in this area corroborate these ndings. With climate change, risks will grow in the Antarctic Peninsula, Ross Sea, and East Antarctic coastal regions. Our evidence-based assessment demonstrates which parts of Antarctica are at growing risk from alien species that may become invasive and provides the means to mitigate this threat now and into the future as the continent’s climate changes.

The same article as is given in Background Paper 1 (BP001).

Summary:

ATCM XXXV and CEP XV 2012, Hobart, Australia

Attachment to Working Paper 13 (WP013)

ATT015 to WP013: COMNAP Preliminary Research Report: Understanding Risk to National Antarctic Program Operations and Personnel in Coastal Antarctica from Tsunami Events (Attachment)

COMNAP Preliminary Research Report: Understanding Risk to National Antarctic Program Operations and Personnel in Coastal Antarctica from Tsunami Events

Abstract:

Even before the recent series of large magnitude earthquakes around the Pacific rim, there was concern expressed by National Antarctic Programs that we did not understand the risk to coastal Antarctic infrastructure and personnel in the event that tsunami waves reached coastal Antarctica. The recent series of large magnitude earthquakes has only added to that concern, since increased wave height was recorded on Antarctic tidal gauges after the recent earthquakes in Japan and New Zealand. This report aims to identify potential tsunami threats via modelling, so that Antarctic groups can make some assessment as to how vulnerable their infrastructure and operations are, and hence make informed decisions regarding future events. This will assist in planning in the future.

In November 2010, COMNAP EXCOM agreed to support a project on understanding tsunami risk. This paper presents the preliminary results of that project which was undertaken by a geology student from the University of Canterbury from the Natural Hazards Research Centre, Mr. Max Gallagher. The student was supervised and the project was overseen by two senior earth scientists, Dr. Thomas Wilson (Disasters and Hazards Management specialist, University of Canterbury) and Dr. Xiaoming Wang (Tsunami scientist and Tsunami modelling expert, GNS Crown Research Institute).

Ten tsunami models in total were produced using (an industry standard) the Cornell Multi Grid Coupled Tsunami Model program (COMCOT v. 1.7). The models were run so as to originate from various tectonic boundaries around the Pacific Ocean in order to identify vulnerable regions along the Pacific section of the Antarctic coastline. Some of the models demonstrated that there is a risk to coastal Antarctic infrastructure, while others did not.

Modelling of the tsunamis use the linear approximation equations to calculate the volume fluxes, velocities fluxes and wave heights. The use of these equations means that shoaling or coastal amplification of the tsunami s wave height is not accounted for. Thus coastal regions will have higher wave amplitude than what is modelled here. Consequently, the tsunamis modelled here, are at the lower limit of what can theoretically be expected to occur.

Today, if an earthquake generated a tsunami similar to and originating from the same areas where the ten models were based, the tsunami would be detected by at least one tsunami buoy; however, that one buoy is not necessarily in between the tsunami s origin and the Antarctic destination. So there appears to be a lack of infrastructure for Antarctic early warning.

There is a general lack of tsunami buoys in the Antarctic region, Antarctica is usually left off of the tsunami warning maps and there is some opportunity for improvement in tsunami detection and warning in the lower latitudes of the Pacific, especially given that the models demonstrate there is a risk to coastal Antarctic research stations. There is also a need for improved bathymetric data and for improved communications between relevant authorities and Antarctic base personnel. So that, in the event of tsunami approaching on coastal Antarctica, personnel can benefit from an early warning system that is accurate and effective. This preliminary study shows that further work is warranted and that there is a need for competent authorities to actively participant in this work.

ATCM XXXV and CEP XV 2012, Hobart, Australia

Attachment 29 to Working Paper 23 (WP013)

ATT029 to WP023: Antarctic Conservation Biogeographic Regions (Attachment)

ATCM XXXV and CEP XV 2012, Hobart, Australia

Background Paper

BP001: Continent-wide Risk Assessment for the Establishment of Nonindigenous Species in Antarctica

Submitted: 20/04/2012

Journal article:

Chown, S. L. et al., 2012. Continent-wide risk assessment for the establishment of nonindigenous species in Antarctica. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (PNAS), 109 (13): 4938-4943. doi:10.1073/pnas.1119787109

Abstract:

Invasive alien species are among the primary causes of biodiversity change globally, with the risks thereof broadly understood for most regions of the world. They are similarly thought to be among the most signi cant conservation threats to Antarctica, especially as climate change proceeds in the region. However, no compre- hensive, continent-wide evaluation of the risks to Antarctica posed by such species has been undertaken. Here we do so by sampling, identifying, and mapping the vascular plant propagules carried by all categories of visitors to Antarctica during the International Polar Year’s rst season (2007–2008) and assessing propagule establishment likelihood based on their identity and origins and on spatial variation in Antarctica’s climate. For an eval- uation of the situation in 2100, we use modeled climates based on the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s Special Report on Emissions Scenarios Scenario A1B [Nakićenović N, Swart R, eds (2000) Special Report on Emissions Scenarios: A Special Report of Working Group III of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK)]. Visitors car- rying seeds average 9.5 seeds per person, although as vectors, scientists carry greater propagule loads than tourists. Annual tour- ist numbers (33,054) are higher than those of scientists (7,085), thus tempering these differences in propagule load. Alien species establishment is currently most likely for the Western Antarctic Peninsula. Recent founder populations of several alien species in this area corroborate these ndings. With climate change, risks will grow in the Antarctic Peninsula, Ross Sea, and East Antarctic coastal regions. Our evidence-based assessment demonstrates which parts of Antarctica are at growing risk from alien species that may become invasive and provides the means to mitigate this threat now and into the future as the continent’s climate changes.

ATCM XXXV and CEP XV 2012, Hobart, Australia

Information Paper

P001: The Scientific Committee on Antarctic Research (SCAR) Annual Report 2011/12

Submitted: 23/04/2012

Summary:

The Scientific Committee on Antarctic Research (SCAR) is a non-governmental, Interdisciplinary Scientific Body of the International Council for Science (ICSU), and Observer to the Antarctic Treaty and the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). This SCAR Annual Report highlights and provides updates on SCAR activities that are of particular interest to the Treaty Parties, gives details of SCAR Fellowships and Prizes, lists major SCAR meetings and shares any other relevant news from the 2011/12 period. 

ATCM XXXV and CEP XV 2012, Hobart, Australia

Information Paper

IP002: The Southern Ocean Observing System (SOOS)

Submitted: 23/04/2012

Summary:

The Southern Ocean Observing System (SOOS) was launched in August 2011 with the mission to coordinate and expand the efforts of all nations that gather data from the Southern Ocean. A specific aim is to develop a coherent and efficient observing system that will deliver the observations required to address key scientific and societal challenges. This paper outlines the scientific challenges and objectives of SOOS, the sponsorship, endorsement and support that it receives and activities and milestones of the initiative.

ATCM XXXV and CEP XV 2012, Hobart, Australia

Information Paper

IP021: Anthropogenic Sound in the Southern Ocean: an Update

Submitted: 30/04/2012

Summary:

This paper forms the basis of a response to the request from CEP XIV that SCAR submits a summary of new information on anthropogenic sound in the Southern Ocean. As this concise overview of research developments demonstrates, the effect of sound on marine wildlife is a rapidly developing research field, dominated by work in regions outside the Southern Ocean. Nonetheless, much remains unknown, both generally, and in particular for the Southern Ocean and many of its species. Further research in the region would therefore result in substantial benefits to marine conservation generally, and would help to ensure that policy formulation is evidence-based, and the policies practicable and successful in achieving the ends they are designed to address.

ATCM XXXV and CEP XV 2012, Hobart, Australia

Information Paper

IP035: Antarctic Conservation for the 21st Century: Background, Progress, and Future Directions (with New Zealand and IUCN)

Submitted: 11/05/2012

Summary:

Recognizing the need for an integrated, comprehensive and dynamic plan for the conservation of Antarctica and associated and dependent ecosystems, initial steps have been taken by SCAR, New Zealand and the International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) to formulate a strategy for the future based on the latest developments in conservation science and practice. This paper describes developments to date and proposes a methodical way forward in the development of what is collectively referred to as the Antarctic Conservation Strategy (ACS). A draft preliminary list of the issues to be included in the ACS is appended (Appendix 1). The ACS will only be as useful as the extent to which it is a dynamic strategy supported by all stakeholders and broadly implemented. Further activities will seek the assistance and advice of all of those with an interest and stake in Antarctic conservation.

ATCM XXXV and CEP XV 2012, Hobart, Australia

Information Paper

IP040: SCAR Products Available to Support the Deliberations of the ATCM

Submitted: 11/05/2012

Summary:

This paper gives an overview of the SCAR products available to support the deliberations of the ATCM.

ATCM XXXV and CEP XV 2012, Hobart, Australia

Information Paper

IP044: Communicating the Science of Climate Change

Submitted: 14/05/2012

Summary:

The Antarctic Treaty Parties and SCAR recognise the importance of communicating climate science as a fundamental responsibility, in particular after the publication of SCAR’s Antarctic Climate Change and the Environment (ACCE) report. This paper reports on SCAR’s climate communications work, with a focus on the elements that need to be considered in the communication of Antarctic climate change science. It takes into account the recommendations on communication included in the SCAR Strategic Plan 2011-2016, specifically with reference to improving the visibility of Antarctic science and the need for wider appeal targeted for inclusion in the next generation SCAR website.

ATCM XXXV and CEP XV 2012, Hobart, Australia

Information Paper

IP045: Antarctic Climate Change and the Environment – 2012 Update

Submitted: 14/05/2012

Summary:

This paper is the third update report to the ATCM since the publication of the SCAR Antarctic Climate Change and the Environment (ACCE) report (Turner et al., 2009). The ACCE report was a first step in compiling a comprehensive assessment of scientific information on the climate system and ecosystem responses to change in the Antarctic and Southern Ocean region.

ATCM XXXV and CEP XV 2012, Hobart, Australia

An overview of SCAR Papers submitted to ATCM XXXV and CEP XV 2012

ATCM XXXV and CEP XV 2012, Hobart, Australia

Working Paper

WP005: Outcomes of the International Polar Year Programme: Aliens in Antarctica

Submitted: 19/04/2012

Summary:

The International Polar Year Project Aliens in Antarctica has provided a spatially explicit, activity- differentiated assessment of the risks of establishment of terrestrial non-native species across Antarctica, both currently and with climate change. The Western Antarctic Peninsula coast and the islands off the coast of the Peninsula have the highest current risk for the establishment of non-native species. By 2100 the risk of non-native species establishment will continue to be highest in the Antarctic Peninsula area, but will also increase substantially in the coastal, ice-free areas to the west of the Amery Ice Shelf and to a lesser extent in the Ross Sea region. SCAR recommends that the CEP: (i) includes the spatially explicit, activity- differentiated risk assessments in further development of strategies to mitigate the risks posed by terrestrial non-native species; (ii) develops a surveillance strategy for areas at high risk of non-native species establishment; (iii) gives additional attention to the risks posed by intra-Antarctic transfer of propagules.

Also see Attachment 9 (ATT009).

ATCM XXXV and CEP XV 2012, Hobart, Australia

Working Paper

WP006: Reducing the Risk of Inadvertent Non-native Species Introductions Associated with Fresh Fruit and Vegetable Importation to Antarctica

Submitted: 23/04/2012

Summary:

In this paper SCAR reviews the science concerning the risk of non-native species introductions associated with the importation of fresh fruits and vegetables to the Antarctic region. SCAR recommends that the CEP:

• encourages Parties to implement the recommendations of the COMNAP/SCAR checklists for supply chain managers; and
• encourages Parties and/or COMNAP to further investigate practical, cost effective methods of reducing the risk of non-native species introductions to Antarctica associated with fresh foods.

ATCM XXXV and CEP XV 2012, Hobart, Australia

Working Paper

WP013: Understanding Risk to National Antarctic Program Operations and Personnel in Coastal Antarctica from Tsunami Events (with COMNAP)

Submitted: 25/04/2012

Summary:

At ATCMXXXIV, Argentina introduced WP002 rev.1 which proposed, inter alia, that “COMNAP could be asked to provide an analysis of the risks to Antarctic bases and operations and to establish an early warning system for the arrival of tsunamis along the coasts of Antarctica”. COMNAP completed a preliminary analysis (see report at Attachment 1) which was presented at the COMNAP AGM (August 2011). SCAR reviewed the preliminary report and provided feedback and additional information which form part of this joint Working Paper.

The preliminary analysis shows that risks of a moderate to concerning level to National Antarctic Program operations and personnel in coastal Antarctica from tsunami may arise on occasion. This risk was identified by running models from historic events and examining tide gauge records.

It is recommended that organisations with expertise in tsunami detection, modeling, research and warning system management should work together with COMNAP and SCAR on the next phase of this project, namely, to develop a simple, cost-effective, practical tsunami warning communications plan and tsunami awareness education materials.

See also Attachment 15 (ATT015).

ATCM XXXV and CEP XV 2012, Hobart, Australia

Working Paper

WP023: Antarctic Conservation Biogeographic Regions (with Australia and New Zealand)

Submitted: 27/04/2012

Summary:

This paper presents the results of recent analyses of the relationships between the best available Antarctic terrestrial biodiversity data, the Environmental Domains adopted under Resolution 3 (2008), and relevant other spatial frameworks. The analyses identified 15 biologically distinct ice-free regions encompassing the Antarctic continent and close-lying islands within the Antarctic Treaty area. Among other potential applications, Australia, New Zealand and SCAR recommend that the Committee endorses the classification represented by these Antarctic Conservation Biogeographic Regions as a dynamic model for identifying Antarctic Specially Protected Areas within a systematic environmental-geographic framework, and as a basis for managing the risk of transfer of species between locations in Antarctica. A draft Resolution is provided for consideration by the Committee.

ATCM XXXV and CEP XV 2012, Hobart, Australia

Working Paper

WP057: Antarctic Environments Portal with New Zealand and Australia

Submitted: 27/04/2012

Summary:

New Zealand, SCAR and Australia see that there is a pressing need to improve the availability of, and access to, scientific syntheses and high quality information to inform decision-making to support the effective implementation of the Protocol. We are seeking to develop an online Antarctic Environments Portal, which aims to be the primary source of information on Antarctic environments. A portal would be an efficient means to strengthen the link between Antarctic science and policy, enhance the CEP’s advisory role to the ATCM, facilitate SCAR’s advisory role to the ATCM and CEP and assist in communicating information on Antarctic environments to the public. We recommend that the CEP note the usefulness of this approach and endorse the concept of the Antarctic Environments Portal.