Documents

ATCM XXX and CEP X 2007, New Delhi, India

Attachment 30 to Working Paper 27 (WP027)

ATT030 to WP027: Summary of Status of the Ross Seal

15 February 2007

A summary of status of knowledge of the biology, distribution, and abundance of the Ross Seal, Ommatophoca rossii

Compiled by Brent S. Stewart, Ph.D., J.D. Senior Research Biologist Hubbs-SeaWorld Research Institute 2595 Ingraham Street, San Diego, CA & Secretary, SCAR Expert Group on Seals on behalf of the SCAR Expert Group on Seals and from contributions by J.L. Bengtson, M. Bester, A.S. Blix, H. Bornemann P. Boveng, M.F. Cameron, E. Nordoy, J. Laake, J. Ploetz, D.B. Siniff, C. Southwell, B.S. Stewart.

ATCM XXX and CEP X 2007, New Delhi, India

Attachment 74 to Information Paper 124

ATT074 to IP124: Climate Change and the Antarctic: What Next? (Lecture Text)

by Chris Rapley, President of SCAR, Member of the International Polar Year 2007-2008 Joint Committee, Director of the British Antarctic Survey

Overview of slides. This is the same as in Information Paper 124 (IP124). See also the lecture slides.

ATCM XXX and CEP X 2007, New Delhi, India

Information Paper

IP005: State of the Antarctic and Southern Ocean Climate System (SASOCS)

Summary:

This Information Paper provides a review of the key developments over the past two years in our understanding of Antarctic climate and the role of the Antarctic climate system in the global climate system. It comments on the findings of the 2007 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) that relate to the Antarctic. A follow-up paper will incorporate studies of effects of climate change on the biota.

• Antarctica and the Southern Ocean play a major role in the Earth’s climate system. They are being and will continue to be affected by global climate change. Their responses to such change will have significant impact on global conditions, especially sea level.
• Modern climate in the region results from the interplay of the ice sheet – ocean – sea ice – atmosphere system and its response to past and present climate forcing.
• Superimposed on the long-term trend of post-glacial warming are millennial and finer scale oscillations whose causes are not well understood aside from those associated with the 11-year sunspot cycle.
• In the past 50 years unprecedented climatic changes cut across these trends. They include the near- surface atmospheric warming observed on the west of the Antarctic Peninsula, with associated rapid warming of the surface ocean, retreat of glaciers and the collapse of ice shelves around the Antarctic Peninsula.
• While ice is being lost from glaciers in the Peninsula and in West Antarctica, East Antarctica shows much less ice loss.
• Consistent with global warming, the Antarctic troposphere has warmed while the stratosphere has cooled. Part of the reason for stratospheric cooling is ozone depletion.
• Cooling of the stratosphere appears to have encouraged the development of polar stratospheric clouds, which may have exacerbated ozone depletion.
• The atmospheric pressure gradient between mid latitudes and Antarctica has steepened over the past 50 years, intensifying the westerlies over the Southern Ocean, and warming the Antarctic Peninsula; this change in pressure and wind has had no significant effect as yet on temperature in East Antarctica, which remains cool.
• The upper kilometer of the circumpolar Southern Ocean has warmed, as have the densest components of Antarctic Bottom Water in the Weddell Sea.
• The coastal ocean has freshened between the Ross Sea and the Southern Indian Ocean, making the Antarctic Bottom Water formed there less saline.
• Since the early 1970s sea ice has reduced west of the Antarctic Peninsula, and in the Weddell Sea. These decreases are balanced by an increase in the Ross Sea.
• Projections of Antarctic climate change over the 21st century with a doubling of CO₂ in the atmosphere indicate warming of the sea ice zone; a reduction in sea ice extent; and warming of the Antarctic interior, accompanied by increased snowfall.
• Climate models need further development to forecast change at the regional level.
• The retreat of the Antarctic ice sheet since the Last Glacial Maximum could be significantly accelerated by global warming. Ice sheet models are not yet adequate to answer pressing questions about the effect of warming on ice melt and sea level. This topic requires significant research.
• Threshold effects may have a significant impact on the ice sheet and sea ice extent. During the last glacial and current interglacial, such effects resulted in massive reorganizations of the ocean-atmosphere- cryosphere system, leading to rapid climate change events. Comprehensive sampling and modeling of the ocean-ice-atmosphere system in the region is needed to forecast such events with confidence.

The paper is a summary of a detailed review produced for submission to a scientific journal. by the SCAR Scientific Research Programme on Antarctica and the Global Climate System (S. Aoki, P.J. Barrett, N.A.N. Bertler, T. Bracegirdle, D. Bromwich, H. Campbell, G. Casassa, A. N. Garabato, W.B. Lyons, K.A. Maasch, P.A. Mayewski, M.P. Meredith, C. Summerhayes, J. Turner, D. Vaughan, A. Worby, and C. Xiao), For access to the original paper please contact the SCAR Secretariat.

ATCM XXX and CEP X 2007, New Delhi, India

Information Paper

IP006: SCAR Report to XXX ATCM

Summary:

SCAR initiates, develops, and co-ordinates high quality international scientific research in the Antarctic region, and on the role of the Antarctic region in the Earth system. SCAR adds value to national research by enabling researchers to tackle issues of pan-Antarctic scale or global reach. SCAR also provides objective and independent scientific advice on issues affecting the management of the environment to the Antarctic Treaty Consultative Meeting (ATCM); the Commission for the Conservation of Antarctic Marine Living Resources (CCAMLR); and the Advisory Committee of the Agreement on Conservation of Albatrosses and Petrels (ACAP). During 2006, SCAR’s main focus was on the XXIXth SCAR Meeting and 2nd Open Science Conference, hosted in Hobart, Tasmania, by the Australian Antarctic Division, which attracted 850 participants.

Through 2006, SCAR continued to focus on research in five main thematic areas: (i) the modern ocean- atmosphere-ice system; (ii) the evolution of climate over the past 34 million years since glaciation began; (iii) the response of life to change; (iv) preparations to study subglacial lakes and their environs; and (v) the response of the Earth’s outer atmosphere to the changing impact of the solar wind at both poles. Particular highlights include the following:

• the Antarctic plateau has been shown to be the best place on Earth for surface-based astronomy – future plans call for possible installation of a terahertz telescope at Dome A, and a 2.4-metre optical/IR telescope at Dome C.
• advanced numerical models show that intermediate depths in the Southern Ocean have warmed by 0.2°C, and would have warmed by twice as much but for the masking effect of aerosols including volcanic dust.
• analysis of climate models suggests that by 2100 the marginal ice zone will warm in winter by up to 0.6°C/decade, resulting in a decrease of 25% in sea-ice cover; central Antarctica will warm at 0.4°C/decade in all seasons; precipitation will increase 3.3mm/decade on average over the continent, mostly around the edges; westerly winds will strengthen over the ocean, mostly in autumn, but coastal easterlies will decrease; katabatic winds will decrease slightly as temperatures on the polar plateau rise by several degrees.
• drilling through the Ross Sea ice shelf shows that the shelf has come and gone repeatedly over the past few hundred thousand years in response to climate change.
• there is a striking biogeographical ‘divide’ between the biota of the Antarctic Peninsula and that of the rest of the continent, suggesting that the biota does not have a ‘recent’ origin.
• evidence of rapid water movement beneath ice sheets suggests that subglacial hydrologic systems exist beneath the polar plateau and may link subglacial lakes.
• conjugate studies of aurora showed that the onsets of simultaneous Arctic and Antarctic substorm onsets are not symmetric, which has implications for predicting space weather events that could have deleterious technological impacts.

ATCM XXX and CEP X 2007, New Delhi, India

Information Paper

IP015: Subglacial Antarctic Lake Environments (SALE) in the International Polar Year 2007-2008

Summary:

This paper summarizes the discussions, recommendations and conclusions of an international community of scientists and technologists with interest and expertise in subglacial Antarctic lake environments research and exploration. It does so in relation to the geodynamics of lake evolution, subglacial hydrology, limnology and biogeochemistry, microbiological life, evolution and adaptations, ice sheet dynamics, paleoclimate records, and global climate connections. The paper discusses the technological challenges associated with subglacial lake exploration and presents a vision for the future.

ATCM XXX and CEP X 2007, New Delhi, India

Information Paper

IP032: Census of Antarctic Marine Life (CAML) (with Australia)

Summary:

The Census of Antarctic Marine Life (CAML) is both a major IPY initiative and a key SCAR activity. Its objectives are to develop a robust benchmark of the distribution and abundance of marine biodiversity in Antarctic waters, against which future change in the marine environment can be assessed. Up to 16 ships are scheduled to participate in field work, with tourist and other-purpose vessels additionally participating in data gathering. This paper provides information on CAML’s first research voyage, data management procedures, the legacy of CAML and details of the 2007/08 field season.

ATCM XXX and CEP X 2007, New Delhi, India

Information Paper

IP037: Hull fouling as a source of marine invasion in the Antarctic

Summary:

Annex II to the Protocol on Environmental Protection, on the Conservation of Antarctic Fauna and Flora requires that precautions be taken to prevent the introduction of non-native species to the Antarctic Treaty Area. At CEP IX, New Zealand introduced WP13 and IP46 on Non-Native Species in the Antarctic. The CEP agreed with the six recommendations arising from the workshop reported in WP13, including that ‘the issue of non-native species should be given the highest priority…’ and that ‘…particular research attention needs to be given to microbial communities and marine ecosystems’.

The introduction of non-native marine species can take place either via dispersal as fouling organisms on kelp rafts (and possibly other organisms), plastic debris or small water craft, or via transport on or in ships entering the Antarctic Treaty area. In the case of ships, introductions may take place via ballast water exchange or by fouling of the hull and sea chests (recessed intake areas for seawater used in the ship’s operation). At CEP IX the United Kingdom presented WP 5 (rev. 1) Practical Guidelines for Ballast Water Exchange in the Antarctic Treaty Area, with the aim to support early implementation of these guidelines developed by the IMO Ballast Water Convention. This led to Resolution 3 (2006) which recommended that the Practical Guidelines for Ballast Water Exchange in the Antarctic Treaty Area be used by all ships in the Antarctic Treaty area except those referred to in Article 3, paragraph 2 of the IMO Ballast Water Management Convention.

Although the risks from introductions via ballast water could be significant, adoption of Resolution 3 (2006) by the ATCM has substantially reduced that risk. This information paper focuses on risks associated with fouling communities that have been reported from vessels operating in the Antarctic Treaty Area. It provides a brief summary of the available information, provides access to this information through an appropriate bibliography, and makes several recommendations for additional research.

ATCM XXX and CEP X 2007, New Delhi, India

Information Paper

IP049: IPY Aliens in Antarctica (with Australia)

Summary:

The impact of non-native (alien) species on ecosystems is one of the big issues of the 21st Century. Antarctica is not immune to this problem with some alien species having established on the Antarctic continent and on most sub-Antarctic islands. IPY Aliens in Antarctica is an international project sponsored by SCAR that will help inform the Antarctic Treaty parties of the size and nature of the threat and possible mitigation methods.

ATCM XXX and CEP X 2007, New Delhi, India

Information Paper

IP052: The Sixth Continent Initiative: Capacity Building in Antarctic Research during IPY 2007-2008 (with UNEP)

Summary:

“The Sixth Continent Initiative – Capacity Building in Antarctic Scientific Research” (6CI) is an approved International Polar Year (IPY) proposal supported by SCAR, the International Polar Foundation (IPF), a public utility foundation, with its head office in Brussels, Belgium, the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP), with its headquarters in Nairobi, and the International Antarctic Institute (IAI), based in Hobart. The aim of 6CI is to widen the exposure of researchers from non-traditionally polar countries to the culture of international scientific cooperation in Antarctica, and its relevance to the global community. The project aims to create a network of interested parties consisting of research institutions, funding agencies, logistics providers, international organisations, and NGOs to help support the development of polar science competences in non-traditionally polar countries. This paper gives an overview of the project, whch will involve two SCAR Fellowships, allocated for this purpose.

ATCM XXX and CEP X 2007, New Delhi, India

Information Paper

IP073: IPY Report for ATCM XXX (with IPY IPO)

Summary:

This paper brings information from the International Programme Office of the International Polar Year (IPY) 2007-2008 to the attention of all parties at ATCM XXX. This includes an overview of the IPY launch and opening ceremonies and infomation on IPY projects and IPY education and outreach.

ATCM XXX and CEP X 2007, New Delhi, India

Information Paper

IP124: SCAR Lecture “Climate Change and the Antarctic: What Next?”

by Chris Rapley, President of SCAR, Member of the International Polar Year 2007-2008 Joint Committee, Director of the British Antarctic Survey

Overview of slides. See also the lecture slides.

Attachment 74 (ATT074) contains the same overview of lecture slides as this document.

ATCM XXX and CEP X 2007, New Delhi, India

An overview of SCAR Papers submitted to ATCM XXX and CEP X 2007

ATCM XXX and CEP X 2007, New Delhi, India

Resolution E (2007): Conservation of Southern Giant Petrel Macronectes giganteus

ATCM XXX and CEP X 2007, New Delhi, India

Resolution G (2007): Long-term Scientific Monitoring and Sustained Environmental Observation in Antarctica

ATCM XXX and CEP X 2007, New Delhi, India

Working Paper

WP001: Proposal to List Southern Giant Petrel as a Specially Protected Species under Annex II

Summary:

This paper lays out the details to support the designation of southern giant petrel as regionally endangered and proposes designation as a Specially Protected Species on regional grounds. It gives an overview of previous disscussions over whether the Southern Giant Petrel should be designated as Specially Protected Species and discusses the criteria and the assessment of the degree of endangerment for Southern Giant Petrel. SCAR recommends that those regional populations of Southern Giant Petrel breeding southward of the Antarctic Polar Front be considered for designation as a Specially Protected Species, with an associated Protection Action Plan.

ATCM XXX and CEP X 2007, New Delhi, India

Working Paper

WP026: The Application of IUCN Endangerment Criteria at the Regional Level of the Antarctic Treaty Area

Summary:

At XXIII ATCM an Inter-sessional Contact Group, chaired by Argentina, was established to discuss the criteria that could be used to designate Specially Protected Species under Annex II of the Protocol. This ICG reported initially at CEP IV through XXIV ATCM/WP5. The Final ICG report was presented as XXV ATCM/ WP8. The advice to the ATCM was encapsulated in Resolution 1 (2002) which noted that the CEP had decided to adopt the IUCN Criteria on Endangerment to establish the degree of threat to a species, requested SCAR to assist in reviewing those species which were classed as “Vulnerable”, “Endangered” or “Critically Endangered” (taking into consideration regional differences in status), as well as reviewing those species classed as “data deficient” or “near threatened” which occurred in the Antarctic Treaty Area.

SCAR agreed to begin this process and suggested that it would first assess the species for which there were already extensive data. At XXVIII ATCM WP34 proposed how the IUCN criteria could be applied to Antarctic bird species, initially assessing endangerment for species at the global level. The first case chosen, that of the Southern Giant Petrel, originally appeared to meet the criteria for Vulnerable at a global level, but new data from outside the Antarctic Treaty Area became available shortly before the meeting, and when these novel data were incorporated into extant data, it appeared that this level of threat was no longer justified by the size of the global breeding population. However, the data for breeding populations of this species within the Antarctic Treaty Area showed a clear, long-term decrease in the regional breeding population and the possibility of designating it a regionally endangered species arose. This paper sets out the way in which the IUCN Criteria are currently used at a regional level to provide guidelines for considerations of the regional status of species, and is based on IUCN (2003) procedures.

ATCM XXX and CEP X 2007, New Delhi, India

Working Paper

WP027: Current Status of the Ross Seal (Ommatophoca rossii): A Specially Protected Species under Annex II

Summary:

Resolution 2 (1999) of XXIII ATCM requested SCAR, in consultation with the Parties, CCAMLR and other expert bodies as appropriate, to examine the status of the species currently designated in Appendix A of Annex II to the Environmental Protocol, and with the assistance of IUCN, to determine the conservation status of native Antarctic fauna and flora and advise the CEP on which species should remain or be designated as Specially Protected Species.

At XXIII ATCM an Intersessional Contact Group, chaired by Argentina, was established to discuss the criteria that could be used to designate Specially Protected Species. The Final ICG report was presented as XXV ATCM/ WP8. The advice to the ATCM was encapsulated in Resolution 1 (2002), which noted that the CEP had decided to adopt the IUCN criteria on endangerment to establish the degree of threat to species, requested SCAR to assist in reviewing those species which were classed as “vulnerable”, “endangered” or “critically endangered” (taking into consideration regional assessments of populations), as well as reviewing those species classed as “data deficient” or “near threatened” which occurred in the Antarctic Treaty Area.

Working Paper XXVIII ATCM WP34 proposed how the IUCN criteria could be applied to Antarctic species. At XXIX ATCM SCAR tabled WP39 proposing that, on this basis and on the grounds of the presently available population data, Antarctic Fur Seals (Arctocephalus spp.) should be delisted as Specially Protected Species. Measure 4 (2006) recommended that the words “All species of the genus Arctocephalus, Fur Seals” be deleted from Appendix A to Annex II to the Protocol on Environmental Protection, and this Measure was adopted by the Parties. Measure 4 noted that the Ross Seal (Ommatophoca rossii) remains a Specially Protected Species. This leaves the Ross seal as the only species currently afforded Special Protection under Annex II to the Protocol on Environmental Protection.

In keeping with Resolution 2 (1999) of XXIII ATCM, SCAR here presents currently available population data on the Ross seal to enable its status as a Specially Protected Species to be re-examined. In summary, SCAR recommends that the status of the Ross seal remain unchanged. This recommendation is made on the basis of the available data and the IUCN criteria, and in keeping with the recommendation that in the absence of sufficient data on which to base a scientifically sound decision no change in status of a species should be made.

See also Attachment 30 (ATT030): Summary of Status of the Ross Seal