AntClimnow (Near-term variability and prediction of the Antarctic climate system)

AntClimnow (Near-term Variability and Prediction of the Antarctic Climate System) is one of SCAR’s new flagship Scientific Research Programmes (SRPs).

AntClimnow aims to answer fundamental science questions (as identified by the SCAR Horizon Scan), relating to Antarctic climate variability. The programme aims to take a regional approach to observing and modelling the Antarctic environment, but taking an integrated approach that will consider the Antarctic as a whole.

The SRP will investigate prediction of near-term conditions in the Antarctic climate system on timescales of years to decades. These time scales are highly relevant across multiple disciplines and to a range of key stakeholders, whilst aligning strongly with scientific priorities identified as part of the SCAR Horizon Scan. Membership of the group is from a range of countries, representing the physical sciences and biological sciences. The breadth of expertise comprises atmosphere, ocean, ice, chemistry and biology.

Fill out the membership application form if you are interested in joining AntClimnow.

About

The SCAR Scientific Research Programme, Near-term Variability and Prediction of the Antarctic Climate System (AntClimnow), will answer fundamental science questions (as identified by the SCAR Horizon Scan) relating to near-term Antarctic climate variability. They will make use of emerging capabilities to understand and quantify the range of possible near-term future climate states across a range of spatial scales. These advances include progress in modelling future climate change, understanding contemporary climate change and variability, and reconstructing past climate.

AntClimnow’s work will be complementary to that of the earlier SRP, Antarctic Climate Change in the 21st Century (AntClim21), which delivered on the key aim of producing improved projections of Antarctic climate change to 2100 and beyond. The focus on century timescales provides crucial information to researchers in many disciplines studying the impacts of longer-term climate change on Antarctica and wider impacts on the rest of the planet through, for example, sea level and ocean circulation. These are important topics that will still need to be addressed going forward as the next generation of SCAR Scientific Research Programmes begin working.

However, a focus on the century timescales does leave a major gap in terms of key questions in Antarctic climate science on near-term changes from years to multiple decades. These shorter time scales are highly relevant across multiple disciplines and to a range of key stakeholders whilst aligning strongly with scientific priorities identified as part of the SCAR Horizon Scan. New capabilities are emerging that will help to improve our understanding and our ability to quantify the envelope of possible near-term future climate states across a range of spatial scales. These advances include progress in modelling future climate change, understanding contemporary climate change and variability, and reconstructing past climate. A more integrated approach would also help to look beyond climate projections of the physical system, but consider the Antarctic environment as a whole.

The membership of the SRP is from a range of countries, representing the biological and physical sciences and other stakeholders. While there is a strong physical focus for much of the proposed research, the SRP will integrate research from multiple disciplines and complement existing SCAR activities.

The five main themes for AntClimnow are:
  • Theme 1. Antarctic climate variability and its linkages to the global climate system
  • Theme 2. Understanding present-day climate trends in Antarctica
  • Theme 3. Predictability of the Antarctic climate system
  • Theme 4. Global and regional cross-disciplinary impacts
  • Theme 5. Communication of results to stakeholders

Current Chief Officers of the AntClimnow SRP are Tom Bracegirdle and Ilana Wainer. Please contact them if you have any questions.

AntclimNow monthly science talks

Subscribe to the AntClimNow mailing list to receive the Zoom links for the monthly talks.

Date

Presenter

Title

21 May 2024, 15:00 UTC

Dr Sergi Gonzàlez Herrero

tbc

26 March 2024, 16:00 UTC

Dr Hua Lu

Temperature variation in the South Orkney Islands: from the extreme events to the long-term trends

20 February 2024 04:00 UTC

Dr Waliur Rahaman

Tipping points for the growth and collapse of West Antarctic Ice Sheet from the Pliocene-Pleistocene (~3.5 Ma) records

21 November 2023 03:00 UTC

Dr Tessa Vance and Danielle Udy

Where is SAM in East Antarctica? Synoptic weather influence on the preservation of SAM variability in coastal East Antarctic ice cores

17 October 2023 15:00  UTC

Dr Nicolaj Hansen

The cloud-phase importance when assessing an offline firn model over Ross Ice Shelf

19 September 2023 02:00 UTC

Dr Earle Wilson

Drivers of abrupt surface warming across the Southern Ocean

25 July 2023 15:00 UTC

Prof Ed Blanchard-Wrigglesworth

The Antarctic heatwave of March 2022 – characteristics and attribution

20 June 2023 15:00 UTC

Dr Jonathan Wille

The extraordinary March 2022 East Antarctica “heat” wave

16 May 2023 04:00 UTC

Dr Will Hobbs

Evidence of increased Antarctic sea ice variability

18 Apr 2023 15:00 UTC

Dr Alessandro Silvano

Impact of tropical Pacific forcing on ice shelf melting and bottom water formation in Antarctica

21 Mar 2023 02:00 UTC

Dr Pranab Deb

Summer air temperature extremes and surface melting over Antarctic ice shelves: the role of tropical teleconnection

Full list and recordings of past talks

News and updates from the AntClimNOW community.

Members

Contact

The joint Chief Officers of AntClimNow are: Tom Bracegirdle  and Ilana Wainer.

If you are interested in joining AntClimNow, please contact the Chief Officers, fill out the membership application form or subscribe to the mailing list.

Committee

Tom Bracegirdle UK Co-Chief Officer
Ilana Wainer Brazil Co-Chief Officer
Clare Eayrs Republic of Korea Early Career Researcher Representative
Ryan Fogt USA Membership Officer
Caroline Holmes UK Monthly talks co-organiser
Sibin Simon India Monthly talks co-organiser
Siobhan Johnson UK Communications Officer
Sheeba Chenoli Malaysia Steering Committee (SC), Theme 1
Seong-Joong Kim Republic of Korea SC, Theme 1
Erik Behrens NZ SC, Theme 2
Matthew England Australia SC, Theme 2
Irina Gorodetskaya Portugal SC, Theme 2
Waliur Rahaman India SC, Theme 2
Zhaomin Wang China SC, Theme 3
Alia Khan USA SC, Theme 4
Shelley MacDonell Chile SC, Theme 4
Craig Stevens NZ SC, Theme 4
Rachel Cavanagh UK SC, Theme 5
Liz Thomas UK SC, Theme 5
Members

Resources

Publications, Data, and Links of interest to the AntClimnow community