AntClimnow (Near-term variability and prediction of the Antarctic climate system)

AntClimnow (Near-term Variability and Prediction of the Antarctic Climate System) is one of SCAR’s new flagship Scientific Research Programmes (SRPs).

AntClimnow aims to answer fundamental science questions (as identified by the SCAR Horizon Scan), relating to Antarctic climate variability. The programme aims to take a regional approach to observing and modelling the Antarctic environment, but taking an integrated approach that will consider the Antarctic as a whole.

The SRP will investigate prediction of near-term conditions in the Antarctic climate system on timescales of years to decades. These time scales are highly relevant across multiple disciplines and to a range of key stakeholders, whilst aligning strongly with scientific priorities identified as part of the SCAR Horizon Scan. Membership of the group is from a range of countries, representing the physical sciences and biological sciences. The breadth of expertise comprises atmosphere, ocean, ice, chemistry and biology.

Fill out the membership application form if you are interested in joining AntClimnow.

About

The SCAR Scientific Research Programme, Near-term Variability and Prediction of the Antarctic Climate System (AntClimnow), will answer fundamental science questions (as identified by the SCAR Horizon Scan) relating to near-term Antarctic climate variability. They will make use of emerging capabilities to understand and quantify the range of possible near-term future climate states across a range of spatial scales. These advances include progress in modelling future climate change, understanding contemporary climate change and variability, and reconstructing past climate.

AntClimnow’s work will be complementary to that of the earlier SRP, Antarctic Climate Change in the 21st Century (AntClim21), which delivered on the key aim of producing improved projections of Antarctic climate change to 2100 and beyond. The focus on century timescales provides crucial information to researchers in many disciplines studying the impacts of longer-term climate change on Antarctica and wider impacts on the rest of the planet through, for example, sea level and ocean circulation. These are important topics that will still need to be addressed going forward as the next generation of SCAR Scientific Research Programmes begin working.

However, a focus on the century timescales does leave a major gap in terms of key questions in Antarctic climate science on near-term changes from years to multiple decades. These shorter time scales are highly relevant across multiple disciplines and to a range of key stakeholders whilst aligning strongly with scientific priorities identified as part of the SCAR Horizon Scan. New capabilities are emerging that will help to improve our understanding and our ability to quantify the envelope of possible near-term future climate states across a range of spatial scales. These advances include progress in modelling future climate change, understanding contemporary climate change and variability, and reconstructing past climate. A more integrated approach would also help to look beyond climate projections of the physical system, but consider the Antarctic environment as a whole.

The membership of the SRP is from a range of countries, representing the biological and physical sciences and other stakeholders. While there is a strong physical focus for much of the proposed research, the SRP will integrate research from multiple disciplines and complement existing SCAR activities.

The five main themes for AntClimnow are:
  • Theme 1. Antarctic climate variability and its linkages to the global climate system
  • Theme 2. Understanding present-day climate trends in Antarctica
  • Theme 3. Predictability of the Antarctic climate system
  • Theme 4. Global and regional cross-disciplinary impacts
  • Theme 5. Communication of results to stakeholders

Current Chief Officers of the AntClimnow SRP are Rachel Cavanagh and Clare Eayrs. Please contact them if you have any questions.

AntclimNow monthly science talks

Subscribe to the AntClimNow mailing list to receive the Zoom links for the monthly talks.

Please reach out to Dr Caroline Holmes or Sibin Simon if you have any questions or suggestions for monthly talks.

Future dates for the diary:

  • Wednesday, 15th January 2025, 03:00 UTC
  • Wednesday, 19th February 2025, 16:00 UTC
  • Wednesday, 19th March 2025, 03:00 UTC
  • Wednesday, 16th April 2025, 15:00 UTC
  • Wednesday, 21st May 2025, 04:00 UTC
  • Wednesday, 18th June 2025, 15:00 UTC

 


Talks 2024:

Date

Presenter

Title

20 November 2024, 16:00 UTC

Dr David Docquier

Drivers of summer Antarctic sea-ice extent in CMIP6 large ensembles revealed by information flow

15 October 2024, 03:00 UTC

Dr Adrian McDonald

Studies of Southern Ocean Aerosols, Clouds, and Precipitation

18 September 2024, 15:00 UTC

Prof Pierpaolo Falco

Past and present oceanographic conditions in the Ross Sea

16 July 2024, 04:00 UTC

Dr Babula Jena

Antarctic sea ice variability in 2023

18 June 2024, 04:00 UTC *postponed*

Dr Holly Winton

Baseline records of sea ice and phytoplankton in the Ross Sea Marine Protected Area: biomarker evidence from marine and ice cores over the past 200 years *postponed*

21 May 2024, 15:00 UTC

Dr Sergi Gonzàlez Herrero

Attribution and impacts of extreme heatwave events in the Antarctic Peninsula: from statistical to dynamical methods

26 March 2024, 16:00 UTC

Dr Hua Lu

Temperature variation in the South Orkney Islands: from the extreme events to the long-term trends

20 February 2024 04:00 UTC

Dr Waliur Rahaman

Tipping points for the growth and collapse of West Antarctic Ice Sheet from the Pliocene-Pleistocene (~3.5 Ma) records

Full list and recordings of past talks

News and updates from the AntClimNOW community.

Members

Contact

The joint Chief Officers of AntClimNow are: Rachel Cavanagh and Clare Eayrs.

If you are interested in joining AntClimNow, please contact the Chief Officers, fill out the membership application form or subscribe to the mailing list.

Committee

Rachel Cavanagh UK Co-Chief Officer
Clare Eayrs South Korea Co-Chief Officer
Siobhan Johnson UK Communications Officer
Anthony Chan UK Early Career Researcher Representative
Ryan Fogt USA Membership Manager
Caroline Holmes UK Monthly talks co-organiser
Sibin Simon India Monthly talks co-organiser
Mukund Gupta Netherlands Dataset Stewardship Scheme
Sheeba Chenoli Malaysia Steering Committee (SC), Theme 1
Seong-Joong Kim Republic of Korea SC, Theme 1
Erik Behrens NZ SC, Theme 2
Irina Gorodetskaya Portugal SC, Theme 2
Waliur Rahaman India SC, Theme 2
Eui-Seok Chung Republic of Korea SC, Theme 3
Zhaomin Wang China SC, Theme 3
Alia Khan USA SC, Theme 4
Craig Stevens NZ SC, Theme 4
Tom Bracegirdle UK SC, Theme 5 (ACI focus)
Naomi Kauzig Italy SC, Theme 5 (ACI focus)
Ilana Wainer Brazil SC, Theme 5
Members

Resources

Publications, Data, and Links of interest to the AntClimnow community