The SCAR 2011-2016 Strategic Plan called for instituting a "Horizon Scanning" activity to support SCAR's vision of leadership and international cooperation in Antarctic and Southern Ocean science and assist in achieving its mission of excellence in science and scientific advice to policy makers. From SCAR's Strategic Plan:

"To sustain a position of leadership, SCAR must maintain a continually evolving vision of frontiers and emerging directions in Antarctic and Southern Ocean science. To this end, SCAR will sponsor a regular assessment of scientific frontiers. The objective will be to assemble the world's leading experts to scan the horizons for emerging frontiers in Antarctic and Southern Ocean science and identify gaps in knowledge. This gathering will draw on data and information from SCAR conferences, symposia, workshops, meetings and other scientific gatherings; the outcomes of SCAR's Action, Expert and Programme Planning Groups; National Antarctic Programme planning and strategic documents; outcomes of SCAR's Scientific Research Programmes; and reports of SCAR's Cross-linkages Meetings. The assessment will produce a …..vision of future directions and grand challenges in Antarctic science. These assessments will inform SCAR leadership and members as it evaluates its scientific portfolio, concludes programmes and approves new ones."
- SCAR Strategic Plan 2011-2016, ' pdf Antarctic Science and Policy Advice in a Changing World (1.59 MB) '

While this was the 1st SCAR Antarctic and Southern Ocean Science Horizon Scan, it is envisioned that every four or five years this view of the future will be revised and updated, based on the latest scientific and global developments. Each Scan begins with assumptions and the current state-of–knowledge, and it is reasonable to expect in these times of rapid change that these underpinnings may substantively change over a time period of four to five years. Regular, and sustained, forward thinking allows for course corrections and recognition of newly emerging trends that are critical to shorter timeframe strategic planning efforts.

Within this framework of science and policy advice, the Scan forms the first element and will provide a community-based vision of the direction of Antarctic and Southern Ocean science in the next two decades. The Scan will not attempt to directly address policy makers' issues but policy makers will be included as Scan participants, and Scan outputs will benefit the other activities.

The second element, the Antarctic Conservation Strategy, is a community-driven effort led by Professor Steven Chown (Australia, Inaugural Muse Prize Awardee) that is addressing the need to better inform and communicate, with and to policy- and decision-makers, the scientific principles that underpin the most critical environmental issues facing Antarctica and the Southern Ocean in the next ten to twenty years. The Antarctic Conservation Strategy will consider the utility of the science identified by the Scan in respect to the knowledge needed for conservation and environmental stewardship efforts. As a feedback, the Antarctic Conservation Strategy will inform the Scan of unmet, critical science needs and/or gaps in knowledge from a "science advice to policy-makers" perspective.

The third element, the Antarctic Environments Portal, is envisioned as a "one-stop shopping" location that provides access to policy-ready scientific outputs. The Portal development is being led by New Zealand and is sponsored by SCAR. Facilitating access to the latest and best scientific findings and knowledge is a critical need of the policy community. The outcomes of the Scan and the Antarctic Conservation Strategy will directly support the objectives and information needs of the Portal.

pdf Chown, S.L., et al, 2012, Challenges to the Future Conservation of the Antarctic, Science, 337, 158-159 (251 KB)

The XXXII SCAR Delegates Meeting (July 2012) agreed to form an Action Group to begin planning for an Antarctic and Southern Ocean Science Horizon Scan (referred to as the "Scan"). The Action Group's Terms of Reference and membership was agreed and the first meeting of the group was held at the SCAR Secretariat in Cambridge, UK from December 19-21, 2012.

The meeting format included opportunities for community consultation by on-line questionnaire, personal appearances, and electronic discussions via Skype. There were 49 responses originating in 22 countries to an on-line questionnaire on various aspects of Scan planning. The Action Group developed a framework for the Scan including: the steps necessary for the Scan to be successful, the intended audiences, the objectives, and the wished for outcomes. The group identified a range of possible processes and mechanisms to ensure broad and inclusive participation to be implemented before, during, and after the Scan. A list of important foundational resources was assembled to support the Scan's deliberations. A survey of National Antarctic Programme strategic planning documents was seen as an important first step to ensuring that the Scan was in-sync with the plans of those that fund and support Antarctic research. A budget for the activity was estimated and a strategy to raise funds agreed.

Another discussion topic was how to assemble a list of potential invitees to the Scan. It was agreed that a broad-based call for community nominations for Scan invitees would be effective and encourage wide participation in the Scan. The development of a list of compelling scientific questions will also be initiated with a broad and inclusive call to the community to pose questions. The Action Group used its discussions and community consultations to propose a detailed blueprint for the "1st SCAR Antarctic and Southern Ocean Science Horizon Scan".

• pdf XXXII SCAR Delegates' Meeting Working Paper on the Horizon Scan Planning Workshop (209 KB)
• pdf Solicitation for input to the Scan Planning Action Group (176 KB)

The 1st SCAR Antarctic and Southern Ocean Science Horizon Scan assembled the world's leading Antarctic scientists, policy makers, leaders, and visionaries to identify the most important scientific questions that will or should be addressed by research in and from the southern Polar Regions over the next two decades. The proven method of "Horizon Scanning" was applied to develop a community view of the most important scientific questions in Antarctic and Southern Ocean science.

The Scan outcomes assist in aligning international programmes, projects and resources to effectively facilitate Antarctic and Southern Ocean science in the coming years. The Scan process of bringing the global Antarctic science and policy community together to plan for the future also serves as an unprecedented opportunity to enhance existing partnerships, forge new relationships, mentor early career scientists and students, and communicate the importance of Antarctic and Southern Ocean science to the public and policy/decision makers.

The first primary audience of the Scan is the international Antarctic and Southern Ocean scientific community. As the leading, international Antarctic scientific organization, SCAR is a surrogate for this community and will be a major audience for and user of Scan outputs and products. The outcomes of the Scan will support SCAR and community strategic planning efforts by providing a collective vision of future directions in Antarctic and Southern Ocean science. This vision will allow for the alignment of programmes, projects and resources with emerging scientific questions and themes. As an example, the timeframe of the current SCAR strategic plan is 2011-2016. The timing of the Scan is such that the outcomes will be available in late 2014/early 2015 for use in the next SCAR strategic planning cycle. The outcomes of the Scan will be useful to individual scientists and groups of scientists by providing a framework that assists in justifying why their science is important, documenting community concurrence on the most important future directions, identifying critical gaps in knowledge, and highlighting opportunities for partnerships and synergies across scientific disciplines and research themes.

The second primary Scan audience is those that fund and support Antarctic and Southern Ocean science, including National Antarctic Programmes and national science funding organizations. In economically challenging times, coordination across the international community will be critical for optimizing return on investments, creating synergies and partnerships, and identifying opportunities for sharing and leveraging of resources amongst Antarctic nations. A clear vision of the future will assist in ensuring that long–term investments in logistics and infrastructure are positioned to support the science and technological needs of emerging research foci. Antarctic and Southern Ocean science is but one of many scientific communities and other sectors competing for limited national resources. A unified and well thought-out vision for the future will be essential in convincing funders, faced with difficult choices, that Antarctic science is not only a wise but essential investment. This is especially important for Antarctic and Southern Ocean science given the cost of investments in major infrastructure such as ships, stations, airplanes, satellites, and other technologies that enable operations in such remote and hostile environments. Developing a community-wide view will frame future directions and emerging frontiers in a holistic and interconnected framework that informs science funding decisions.

The third primary Scan audience is the Antarctic Conservation Strategy (ACS) and Antarctic Environments Portal (AEP) projects. The Scan will not attempt to directly address policy makers but policy makers will be included as Scan participants. The Antarctic Conservation Strategy is a community-driven effort to define and address the need for scientific advice to inform policy/decision-makers about the scientific basis for addressing some of the most compelling environmental issues in Antarctica and the Southern Ocean in the next 10 to 20 years. It is attempting to develop a framework for ensuring that the best science and knowledge available is brought to the attention of policy makers in formats that are understandable and utilitarian. The Antarctic Conservation Strategy will apply the science that is identified by the Scan. The Antarctic Conservation Strategy will also illustrate the value of investments in Antarctic and Southern Ocean science. Complementing the Scan and the ACS is the concept of an Antarctic Environments Portal which is developing a "one-stop shopping" website for policy-ready scientific advice led by New Zealand, SCAR, and COMNAP. Ensuring access to the latest and best scientific findings and knowledge is critically needed by the policy community. The Scan will focus on future directions in pure/basic science, the Antarctic Conservation Strategy will translate that science and knowledge into policy-ready formats, and the Portal will deliver that knowledge to the policy community.

There are a number of other potential audiences for outcomes of the Scan including:

• Partner organizations with a polar focus or an interest in the Polar Regions – using outcomes to inform partners of new directions and identify opportunities for synergy and cooperation.
• Academia/Teachers - producing teaching materials and informing educators about important Antarctic and Southern Ocean topics and why they are important.
• Next generation scientists – highlighting future directions and exciting research opportunities for the next generation of scientists, engaging them directly in the process, and providing mentoring opportunities (also invited as Scan participants).
• The Public – educating and informing by supplying high quality outputs to media outlets.
• Non-governmental environmental and advocacy groups – informing and educating.

Customized outputs/products for these audiences will be developed after the Retreat as additional funds become available.

The Scan is based on a proven, iterative approach to processing hundreds of scientific questions posed by the community through a series of methodical steps to arrive at a prioritized list of the most important and compelling scientific questions. This approach has been successfully used for a wide range of applications which have resulted in highly cited papers that have influenced national priorities for funding and action. There are key steps in the process relative to the core activity which is a physical gathering of experts (the "Retreat"). Pre-Retreat planning includes formation of a diverse and representative International Steering Committee, assembling foundational documents in a database, community-wide solicitations for nominees for Retreat participation and scientific questions, preliminary sorting of questions and recruitment of discussion leaders. At the Retreat the list of 100 most important questions will be embellished within an integrated, substantive narrative.

Horizon Scanning is gaining acceptance as a methodology to develop a collective view of future directions in an area of interest. A seminal paper that guided the development of the 1st SCAR Science Horizon Scan is the paper by Sutherland et al (2011) that analyzes several horizon scan activities and recommends best practice based on these experience. This paper is highly recommended as basic reading for all persons involved in this Horizon Scan:

• Sutherland, W.J., Fleishman, E., Mascia, M.B., Pretty, J. and Rudd, M.A., 2011, Methods for collaboratively identifying research priorities and emerging issues in science and policy, Methods in Ecology and Evolution, 2011, 2, 238–247.

Other examples of the use of Horizon Scanning:

• Sutherland, W.J., et al, 2012, A horizon scan of global conservation issues for 2012, Trends in Ecology and Evolution, vol. 27, no. 1, 12-18
• Sutherland, W.J., et al, 2012, A horizon scanning assessment of current and potential future threats to migratory shorebirds, Ibis, vol. 154, 4, 663-679 - online DOI: 10.1111/j.1474-919X.2012.01261.x
• Sutherland, W.J., et al, 2013, Identification of 100 fundamental ecological questions, Journal of Ecology, 101, 58-67
• Sutherland, W.J., et al, 2013, A horizon scan of global conservation issues for 2013, Trends in Ecology and Evolution, vol. 28, no. 1, 16-22

• Future Science Opportunities in Antarctica and the Southern Ocean - a report by the US National Academy of Sciences, 2011
• A horizon scan of global conservation issues for 2012 - Bill Sutherland, et al, Cell Press, 2012
•  A horizon scan of global conservation issues for 2013 - Bill Sutherland, et al, Cell Press, 2013
• Strengthening Environmental Foresight: Potential Contributions of Futures Research - Bengston, et al, Ecology and Society, 2012
• pdf Antarctic Science and Policy Advice in a Changing World: SCAR Strategic Plan 2011-2016 (1.59 MB)

The Science Horizon Scan Retreat was held in Queenstown, New Zealand from 20 to 23 April 2014, where the most important scientific questions were be formulated and agreed. To reach a consensus, International Steering Committee members carefully reviewed the credentials of all nominees and selected those they believed should be invited to the Retreat via an online survey. For further details on the voting process used for selecting retreat attendees, see the news announcement. For the countries represented in the nominations for the Horizon Scan retreat, see the Demographics page.

The following is the final list:

Day 1

Day 2

An important decision in organizing the Antarctic and Southern Ocean Science Horizon Scan was grouping the scientific questions submitted by the community into a logical structure. More than 850 questions were submitted by the community and this database will be the starting point for discussion at the Horizon Scan Retreat in April 2104. The final structure of the question database is organized into eleven themes. Questions that could be logically addressed in more than one theme are repeated in the database for a total of nearly 1000 questions.

spreadsheet Complete database of sorted questions for download (263 KB)

Each question has been assigned a unique number (1st Solicitation: 1 to 999; 2nd solicitation: 1001-1999; additional questions from the Pre-Retreat Survey: 2001-2999) so that the question can be traced to the original database of unedited questions and viewed with its related keywords and descriptions.

Databases of raw, unedited questions submitted

•   spreadsheet Round 1 Questions (370 KB)
•   spreadsheet Round 2 Questions (72 KB)
•   spreadsheet Round 3 (Pre-Retreat Survey) Questions (32 KB)

For information about the two community-wide rounds of solicited questions, see the February 2014 News item.

Demographic spread of respondents submitting questions:

Countries represented in nominations for the Horizon Scan Retreat:

22 April 2014 - Queenstown, New Zealand

"What will Antarctica and the Southern Ocean look like in 2065?"

Many forecasters and futurists tell us that in 2065:

• the world's human population will be 8.5 billion,
• atmospheric CO₂ levels will exceed 650 ppm under a business-as-usual scenario,
• the Arctic ocean will be ice free in August and September,
• average global temperature will be 4°C warmer than in 2000,
• ocean pH will be less than 8.2, and
• sea level will be around 26 cm higher than in 1990.

What will these dramatic changes to Planet Earth mean for the world's last great wilderness and bellwether of global change – Antarctica and the Southern Ocean? To speculate about this future world and the ramifications for human societies, the "1^st Martha T. Muse Colloquium" convened a panel of the Martha Muse Prize awardees and guests to address the topic "Beyond the Horizon – Antarctica and the Southern Ocean 2065" in Queenstown, New Zealand on Tuesday 22 April 2014. The Colloquium was part of the 1^st SCAR Antarctic and Southern Ocean Science Horizon Scan that assembled around 80 of the world's leading Antarctic scientists, policymakers, and logistics science funders to develop a collective community view of the most timely, urgent and compelling scientific questions that need to be addressed in the next two decades.

The Colloquium panel included Martha T. Muse Prize Fellows Steven Chown (terrestrial ecologist and policy adviser), Monash University, Melbourne, Australia; Helen Fricker (glaciologist and satellite observational specialist), University of California, San Diego, USA; José Xavier (marine biologist ecologist and marine mammals expert), University of Coimbra and the British Antarctic Survey, Portugal/UK; Steve Rintoul (physical oceanographic modeller and observationalist), CSIRO, Australia; and Martin Siegert (glaciologist and geologist), Imperial College, London, UK. The Muse Fellows were joined on the panel by Neil Gilbert (policy adviser and Antarctic governance expert), Antarctica New Zealand, and Gary Wilson (marine geologist and geophysicist and paleoclimate expert), Director of the New Zealand Antarctic Research Institute (NZARI).

Video recordings of the Colloquium are available online through YouTube.

Travel Information

•   pdf A Guide to the SCAR Science Horizon Scan Retreat Lodging and Travel (158 KB)

Pre-Retreat Attendee Question Survey

• Results - the final list of 80 questions.

Antarctic and Southern Ocean Science Horizon Scan – Outputs and Products

• Publications (the International Steering Committee and/or a select subset will serve as an internal Editorial Board to ensure consistency in message)
  • News articles – interviews with the media and press releases – Timeframe: continual.
  • Apex article (short article according to journal format– may be as short as 1500 words): Science or Nature (a Senior Science Editor from Nature will be embedded in the Retreat). Broad audience, non-polar world – authorship to be determined. Timeframe: 2-3 weeks post-Retreat
    
  • Longer detailed paper - Antarctic journal (Antarctic Science has expressed interest) - authorship to be determined. Time frame: 3 to 4 months post-Retreat.
  • Discipline-based publication - discipline-oriented journal to be chosen by authors – focused on communicating those questions most relevant to their individual communities - authorship to be determined (to be reviewed internally for consistency). Timeframe: variable depending on commitment of lead authors.
  • Individuals or groups of individuals are encouraged to develop publications as they see fit and/or see a need for communicating outcomes (to be reviewed internally for consistency). Timeframe: to be determined by authors.
    
    
• Presentations (as they are developed, PowerPoint presentations and other materials will be made widely available)
  • SCAR Open Science Conference – audience: the Antarctic community. Forums under negotiation; August 2014, Auckland.
  • Special Presentation to Funders of Antarctic Science (by invitation only) – audience: National Antarctic Program funders/managers - under discussion; August 2014, Auckland.
  • Regional Presentations – audiences: regional Antarctic communities - under discussion, subject to funding.
  • Invited presentations – as requested (polar organizations/institutions and/or organizations with a polar interest), the public, and other interested parties.
  • Presentations by Individuals/Groups – all retreat attendees are encouraged to present Horizon Scan results, as opportunities arise, to organizations, institutions, public audiences, etc. (presentation materials will be made readily available).

Reporting on Scientific Question Clusters – Topical Theme

  pdf An exemplar (48 KB) is provided for a fictitious cluster of scientific questions based on a scenario to illustrate one of the goals for the Retreat which is to produce a written summary of the final outcomes by the end of the Retreat. This is intended to guide thinking as the Retreat progresses, and particularly to encourage submission of written material in a common format to facilitate production of final Retreat documents. The goal is to submit the Apex Article soon after the Retreat concludes. The contents include a descriptive and informative title, brief summary (not to exceed 500 words), list of scientific questions, and brief discussions of technological challenges and extraordinary logistical requirements.

• Nature News blog - June 2013
• Future Earth blog on 'crowdsourcing' which references the Horizon Scan - February 2014
• Latest news and updates

The following are media reports on the Nature article 'Polar Research: Six priorities for Antarctic Science' (6 August 2014):

• Australia risks losing our grip on Antarctica - ABC Environment, 7 Aug 2014 (article no longer exists)
• Historic Document Outlines Antarctic Research - Texas A&M Today, 6 Aug 2014
• Antarctic Leaders Welcome Release of Scientific Priorities - Scoop, 7 Aug 2014
• Australia risks slipping from Antarctic research leadership role - Sydney Morning Herald, 7 Aug 2014
• Polar research: Six priorities for Antarctic science -
  • dnatestingchoice.com, 6 Aug 2014 (article no longer exists)
  • Antarctic and Southern Ocean Coalition, 9 Aug 2014 (article no longer exists)
• Enhanced international cooperation needed in Antarctica -
  
  • (e) Science News, 6 Aug 2014
  • Science Daily, 6 Aug 2014
  • Phys.org, 6 Aug 2014
  • Science CODEX, 6 Aug 2014
  • USA DailyNews, 7 Aug 2014 (article no longer exists)
  • Space Daily, 7 Aug 2014
  • Newsduet (article no longer exists)
• New decisions on Antarctic research announced today - NewstalkZB, 7 Aug 2014 (article no longer exists)
• 80 Fragen an das südliche Ende der Welt -
  • Uni-Protokolle, 7 Aug 2014
  • Ad-Hoc News, 7 Aug 2014
  • Jura Forum, 7 Aug 2014
• Polar science explores life's origins - DelhiDailyNews.com, 7 Aug 2014
• Life's origins a focus of polar science -
  • The Courier Mail, 7 Aug 2014
  • The Australian, 7 Aug 2014
  • News.com.au, 7 Aug 2014
  • Herald Sun, 7 Aug 2014
• New priorities for Antarctic Science - University of Pretoria, 6 Aug 2014 (article no longer exists)
• Six priorities for Antarctic science -
  • SCAR, 7 Aug 2014
  • International Arctic Science Committee, 11 Aug 2014
• Research priorities for Antarctic science - Victoria University, 7 Aug 2014
• Setting the research agenda for Antarctic science - Imperial College London, 7 Aug 2014
• Establishing six priorities for Antarctic science -Science Poles, 11 Aug 2014 (article no longer exists)
• Priorities for Antarctic Science -British Antarctic Survey, 13 Aug 2014

Post-Retreat activities include communicating outcomes to the community and producing a high profile article in a journal. Other types of output will include: short summaries of key topics, prioritized lists of questions, a website, Scan resource databases, a final report, presentation materials, presentations at conferences and symposia, topical papers in journals, and submissions to Antarctic Treaty Consultative Meetings.

Journal Articles:

• Polar research: six priorities for Antarctic science - Nature512, 23-25 (06 August 2014) | doi:10.1038/512023a
• A roadmap for Antarctic and Southern Ocean science for the next two decades and beyond - Kennicutt, et al., Antarctic Science, First View, 1-16 (September 2014) | doi:10.1017/S0954102014000674

Scan Questions:

•   pdf The official list of the 80 most pressing scientific questions resulting from the Scan (326 KB)
   

For more information, visit the Next Steps section of the Horizon Scan website.

The following are pdf versions of the official Horizon Scan presentation.  Access to the original Powerpoint versions may be requested from This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it..

•   pdf SCAR Antarctic Science Horizon Scan - brief summary (1.02 MB)
•   pdf SCAR Antarctic Science Horizon Scan - detailed presentation (4.58 MB)

Other presentations:

• U.S. National Academies: May 2014, Washington, DC
• NZARI/Antarctica New Zealand: June 2014, Christchurch, NZ
• SCAR Biennial Meetings, Open Science Conference Special Event: August-September 2014, Auckland, NZ
  •   pdf Integrating Science, Conservation and Policy in Antarctica in the21st  Century (Horizon Scan broader framework) (2.29 MB) - given at the closing ceremony of the SCAR 2014 OSC (3.1 MB)
• UK SCAR National Committee: October 2014, London, UK
• Polar Research Institute of China: October 2014, Shanghai and Beijing, China
• IASC ICARP III Executive Committee: October 2014, Potsdam, Germany
• National Polar Research Institute: TBA 2015, Tokyo, Japan
• World-wide Regional Meetings: South America, Pacific Rim, Europe; TBA

• 3 News – The Nation Interview: Chuck Kennicutt and Gary Wilson
• Newstalk ZB: Scientists and policymakers meet to discuss Antarctica
  
• National Business Review: Top Antarctic scientists warn NZ ‘not ready’ for worst as climate changes
• Antarctic New Zealand: Top Antarctic scientists warn NZ 'not ready' for worst as climate changes
• TVNZ: Top scientists debate issues facing Antarctica
• 3 News: Antarctic scientists work on 20-year goals
• NZ Science Media Centre: Scanning the Antarctic Horizon
• HuffPost Live: West Antarctic Ice Melting At Alarming Rates