Framework
The Scan was proposed within an expansive framework of activities that defined a new and robust paradigm for how Antarctic science and policy could work more effectively to benefit society:
Introduction
The SCAR 2011-2016 Strategic Plan called for instituting a “Horizon Scanning” activity to support SCAR’s vision of leadership and international cooperation in Antarctic and Southern Ocean science and assist in achieving its mission of excellence in science and scientific advice to policy makers. From SCAR’s Strategic Plan:
“To sustain a position of leadership, SCAR must maintain a continually evolving vision of frontiers and emerging directions in Antarctic and Southern Ocean science. To this end, SCAR will sponsor a regular assessment of scientific frontiers. The objective will be to assemble the world’s leading experts to scan the horizons for emerging frontiers in Antarctic and Southern Ocean science and identify gaps in knowledge. This gathering will draw on data and information from SCAR conferences, symposia, workshops, meetings and other scientific gatherings; the outcomes of SCAR’s Action, Expert and Programme Planning Groups; National Antarctic Programme planning and strategic documents; outcomes of SCAR’s Scientific Research Programmes; and reports of SCAR’s Cross-linkages Meetings. The assessment will produce a …..vision of future directions and grand challenges in Antarctic science. These assessments will inform SCAR leadership and members as it evaluates its scientific portfolio, concludes programmes and approves new ones.”
– SCAR Strategic Plan 2011-2016, ‘ Antarctic Science and Policy Advice in a Changing World (1.59 MB) ‘
While this was the 1st SCAR Antarctic and Southern Ocean Science Horizon Scan, it is envisioned that every four or five years this view of the future will be revised and updated, based on the latest scientific and global developments. Each Scan begins with assumptions and the current state-of–knowledge, and it is reasonable to expect in these times of rapid change that these underpinnings may substantively change over a time period of four to five years. Regular, and sustained, forward thinking allows for course corrections and recognition of newly emerging trends that are critical to shorter timeframe strategic planning efforts.
Context
Within this framework of science and policy advice, the Scan forms the first element and will provide a community-based vision of the direction of Antarctic and Southern Ocean science in the next two decades. The Scan will not attempt to directly address policy makers’ issues but policy makers will be included as Scan participants, and Scan outputs will benefit the other activities.
The second element, the Antarctic Conservation Strategy, is a community-driven effort led by Professor Steven Chown (Australia, Inaugural Muse Prize Awardee) that is addressing the need to better inform and communicate, with and to policy- and decision-makers, the scientific principles that underpin the most critical environmental issues facing Antarctica and the Southern Ocean in the next ten to twenty years. The Antarctic Conservation Strategy will consider the utility of the science identified by the Scan in respect to the knowledge needed for conservation and environmental stewardship efforts. As a feedback, the Antarctic Conservation Strategy will inform the Scan of unmet, critical science needs and/or gaps in knowledge from a “science advice to policy-makers” perspective.
The third element, the Antarctic Environments Portal, is envisioned as a “one-stop shopping” location that provides access to policy-ready scientific outputs. The Portal development is being led by New Zealand and is sponsored by SCAR. Facilitating access to the latest and best scientific findings and knowledge is a critical need of the policy community. The outcomes of the Scan and the Antarctic Conservation Strategy will directly support the objectives and information needs of the Portal.
Chown, S.L., et al, 2012, Challenges to the Future Conservation of the Antarctic, Science, 337, 158-159
The XXXII SCAR Delegates Meeting (July 2012) agreed to form an Action Group to begin planning for an Antarctic and Southern Ocean Science Horizon Scan (referred to as the “Scan”). The Action Group’s Terms of Reference and membership was agreed and the first meeting of the group was held at the SCAR Secretariat in Cambridge, UK from December 19-21, 2012.
The meeting format included opportunities for community consultation by on-line questionnaire, personal appearances, and electronic discussions via Skype. There were 49 responses originating in 22 countries to an on-line questionnaire on various aspects of Scan planning. The Action Group developed a framework for the Scan including: the steps necessary for the Scan to be successful, the intended audiences, the objectives, and the wished for outcomes. The group identified a range of possible processes and mechanisms to ensure broad and inclusive participation to be implemented before, during, and after the Scan. A list of important foundational resources was assembled to support the Scan’s deliberations. A survey of National Antarctic Programme strategic planning documents was seen as an important first step to ensuring that the Scan was in-sync with the plans of those that fund and support Antarctic research. A budget for the activity was estimated and a strategy to raise funds agreed.
Another discussion topic was how to assemble a list of potential invitees to the Scan. It was agreed that a broad-based call for community nominations for Scan invitees would be effective and encourage wide participation in the Scan. The development of a list of compelling scientific questions will also be initiated with a broad and inclusive call to the community to pose questions. The Action Group used its discussions and community consultations to propose a detailed blueprint for the “1st SCAR Antarctic and Southern Ocean Science Horizon Scan”.
Objectives
The 1st SCAR Antarctic and Southern Ocean Science Horizon Scan assembled the world’s leading Antarctic scientists, policy makers, leaders, and visionaries to identify the most important scientific questions that will or should be addressed by research in and from the southern Polar Regions over the next two decades. The proven method of “Horizon Scanning” was applied to develop a community view of the most important scientific questions in Antarctic and Southern Ocean science.
The Scan outcomes assist in aligning international programmes, projects and resources to effectively facilitate Antarctic and Southern Ocean science in the coming years. The Scan process of bringing the global Antarctic science and policy community together to plan for the future also serves as an unprecedented opportunity to enhance existing partnerships, forge new relationships, mentor early career scientists and students, and communicate the importance of Antarctic and Southern Ocean science to the public and policy/decision makers.
Audience and Beneficiaries
The first primary audience of the Scan is the international Antarctic and Southern Ocean scientific community. As the leading, international Antarctic scientific organization, SCAR is a surrogate for this community and will be a major audience for and user of Scan outputs and products. The outcomes of the Scan will support SCAR and community strategic planning efforts by providing a collective vision of future directions in Antarctic and Southern Ocean science. This vision will allow for the alignment of programmes, projects and resources with emerging scientific questions and themes. As an example, the timeframe of the current SCAR strategic plan is 2011-2016. The timing of the Scan is such that the outcomes will be available in late 2014/early 2015 for use in the next SCAR strategic planning cycle. The outcomes of the Scan will be useful to individual scientists and groups of scientists by providing a framework that assists in justifying why their science is important, documenting community concurrence on the most important future directions, identifying critical gaps in knowledge, and highlighting opportunities for partnerships and synergies across scientific disciplines and research themes.
The second primary Scan audience is those that fund and support Antarctic and Southern Ocean science, including National Antarctic Programmes and national science funding organizations. In economically challenging times, coordination across the international community will be critical for optimizing return on investments, creating synergies and partnerships, and identifying opportunities for sharing and leveraging of resources amongst Antarctic nations. A clear vision of the future will assist in ensuring that long–term investments in logistics and infrastructure are positioned to support the science and technological needs of emerging research foci. Antarctic and Southern Ocean science is but one of many scientific communities and other sectors competing for limited national resources. A unified and well thought-out vision for the future will be essential in convincing funders, faced with difficult choices, that Antarctic science is not only a wise but essential investment. This is especially important for Antarctic and Southern Ocean science given the cost of investments in major infrastructure such as ships, stations, airplanes, satellites, and other technologies that enable operations in such remote and hostile environments. Developing a community-wide view will frame future directions and emerging frontiers in a holistic and interconnected framework that informs science funding decisions.
The third primary Scan audience is the Antarctic Conservation Strategy (ACS) and Antarctic Environments Portal (AEP) projects. The Scan will not attempt to directly address policy makers but policy makers will be included as Scan participants. The Antarctic Conservation Strategy is a community-driven effort to define and address the need for scientific advice to inform policy/decision-makers about the scientific basis for addressing some of the most compelling environmental issues in Antarctica and the Southern Ocean in the next 10 to 20 years. It is attempting to develop a framework for ensuring that the best science and knowledge available is brought to the attention of policy makers in formats that are understandable and utilitarian. The Antarctic Conservation Strategy will apply the science that is identified by the Scan. The Antarctic Conservation Strategy will also illustrate the value of investments in Antarctic and Southern Ocean science. Complementing the Scan and the ACS is the concept of an Antarctic Environments Portal which is developing a “one-stop shopping” website for policy-ready scientific advice led by New Zealand, SCAR, and COMNAP. Ensuring access to the latest and best scientific findings and knowledge is critically needed by the policy community. The Scan will focus on future directions in pure/basic science, the Antarctic Conservation Strategy will translate that science and knowledge into policy-ready formats, and the Portal will deliver that knowledge to the policy community.
There are a number of other potential audiences for outcomes of the Scan including:
- Partner organizations with a polar focus or an interest in the Polar Regions – using outcomes to inform partners of new directions and identify opportunities for synergy and cooperation.
- Academia/Teachers – producing teaching materials and informing educators about important Antarctic and Southern Ocean topics and why they are important.
- Next generation scientists – highlighting future directions and exciting research opportunities for the next generation of scientists, engaging them directly in the process, and providing mentoring opportunities (also invited as Scan participants).
- The Public – educating and informing by supplying high quality outputs to media outlets.
- Non-governmental environmental and advocacy groups – informing and educating.
Customized outputs/products for these audiences will be developed after the Retreat as additional funds become available.
Background
The SCAR 2011-2016 Strategic Plan called for instituting a “Horizon Scanning” activity to support SCAR’s vision of leadership and international cooperation in Antarctic and Southern Ocean science and assist in achieving its mission of excellence in science and scientific advice to policy makers:
What Antarctic science is currently funded by National Antarctic Programmes?
Methodology
The Scan is based on a proven, iterative approach to processing hundreds of scientific questions posed by the community through a series of methodical steps to arrive at a prioritized list of the most important and compelling scientific questions. This approach has been successfully used for a wide range of applications which have resulted in highly cited papers that have influenced national priorities for funding and action. There are key steps in the process relative to the core activity which is a physical gathering of experts (the “Retreat”). Pre-Retreat planning includes formation of a diverse and representative International Steering Committee, assembling foundational documents in a database, community-wide solicitations for nominees for Retreat participation and scientific questions, preliminary sorting of questions and recruitment of discussion leaders. At the Retreat the list of 100 most important questions will be embellished within an integrated, substantive narrative.
Horizon Scanning is gaining acceptance as a methodology to develop a collective view of future directions in an area of interest. A seminal paper that guided the development of the 1st SCAR Science Horizon Scan is the paper by Sutherland et al (2011) that analyzes several horizon scan activities and recommends best practice based on these experience. This paper is highly recommended as basic reading for all persons involved in this Horizon Scan:
- Sutherland, W.J., Fleishman, E., Mascia, M.B., Pretty, J. and Rudd, M.A., 2011, Methods for collaboratively identifying research priorities and emerging issues in science and policy, Methods in Ecology and Evolution, 2011, 2, 238–247.
Other examples of the use of Horizon Scanning:
- Sutherland, W.J., et al, 2012, A horizon scan of global conservation issues for 2012, Trends in Ecology and Evolution, vol. 27, no. 1, 12-18
- Sutherland, W.J., et al, 2012, A horizon scanning assessment of current and potential future threats to migratory shorebirds, Ibis, vol. 154, 4, 663-679 – online DOI: 10.1111/j.1474-919X.2012.01261.x
- Sutherland, W.J., et al, 2013, Identification of 100 fundamental ecological questions, Journal of Ecology, 101, 58-67
- Sutherland, W.J., et al, 2013, A horizon scan of global conservation issues for 2013, Trends in Ecology and Evolution, vol. 28, no. 1, 16-22
Other Useful Documents
- Future Science Opportunities in Antarctica and the Southern Ocean – a report by the US National Academy of Sciences, 2011
- A horizon scan of global conservation issues for 2012 – Bill Sutherland, et al, Cell Press, 2012
- A horizon scan of global conservation issues for 2013 – Bill Sutherland, et al, Cell Press, 2013
- Strengthening Environmental Foresight: Potential Contributions of Futures Research – Bengston, et al, Ecology and Society, 2012
- Antarctic Science and Policy Advice in a Changing World: SCAR Strategic Plan 2011-2016
The Retreat
A critical element of the Science Horizon Scan was the Retreat held in Queenstown, New Zealand from April 20 to 23, 2014, where the most important scientific questions were formulated and agreed. The Horizon Scan International Steering Committee (ISC) selected Retreat invitees from nearly 500 community-submitted nominations of highly qualified and deserving candidates. Primary considerations in selection were scientific excellence, leadership, and a broad perspective of Antarctic science. To reach a consensus, ISC members carefully reviewed the credentials of all nominees and selected those they believed should be invited to the Retreat via an online survey. Nominees were classified as experts in the GeoSciences; Life Sciences; Physical Sciences; and Social Sciences, Humanities and Policy, as defined by SCAR’s portfolio of scientific activities, to ensure coverage of the breadth of Antarctic science.
Scan Retreat attendees were representatives of their communities and were tasked with providing a broad perspective on their areas of expertise at the Retreat. Everyone was encouraged to contact attendees and make their opinions known and take advantage of opportunities to participate in the Horizon Scan (i.e. online question solicitations).
The 72 Retreat attendees were from 22 countries and included scientists, national programme directors/managers, policy-makers, decision-makers, early-careeer scientists and students.
