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pdf SCAR EXCOM 2019 Paper 9: Report from AntClimNOW PPG

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EC19-09_AntClimNow_draft_Implementation_Plan.pdf

SCAR EXCOM 2019 Paper 9: Report from AntClimNOW PPG

SCAR Executive Committee Meeting
30-31 July, Plovdiv, Bulgaria

SCAR EXCOM 2019 Paper 9: Report from AntClimNOW PPG

Near-term Variability and Prediction of the Antarctic Climate System (AntClimNOW) - Draft Science and Implementation Plan

Agenda Item: 5
Person Responsible: Tom Bracegirdle and David Bromwich


Summary

Many of the most important questions in Antarctic and Southern Ocean climate science are related to understanding present-day climatic trends and estimating future change in the near term (present day to mid 21st century). This topic is a key gap in the scope of the current SCAR SRPs due to its importance to Antarctic stakeholders both from a global and regional perspective. It is timely to fill this gap due to recent advances and current developments in relevant areas of climate / earth-system modelling, observations, climate proxy reconstructions and data science.

In terms of the SCAR Strategic Plan, the proposed SRP would address a number of scientific priorities identified as part of the SCAR Horizon Scan. It would widen relevance to a broader spectrum of Antarctic climate scientists, connect communities and enhance progress across this spectrum. The proposed approach involves three main scientific objectives: (i) Quantify linkages between Antarctic climate variability and the rest of the planet, with a focus on links to the tropics; (ii) Explain the contemporary annual-to-decadal time-scale trends in the Antarctic climate system and (iii) Determine the near-term predictability of the Antarctic climate system.

A further two objectives are to (iv) enhance collaboration between the science disciplines and (v) develop effective communication of the latest scientific results to bodies, such as the CEP and CCAMLR, concerned with how a changing climate may impact the governance and management of the Antarctic.

The necessary expertise is represented in the core membership, which currently comprises 31 members from 14 countries, representing the physical and biological sciences. Their range of expertise includes atmosphere, ocean, ice, chemistry and biology.