Antarctic Climate Change in the 21st Century (AntClim21)


The overarching question of this proposal is: How will the Antarctic1 environment change over the 21st Century? This is an important issue both within Antarctic region and globally. To achieve this goal, AntarcticClimate21 will focus on three themes of research:

- Theme 1. Quantification of Antarctic climate variability.
- Theme 2. Climate model verification for the Antarctic region.
- Theme 3. Antarctic climate projection to 2100 AD

The Antarctic region has already experienced substantial changes with impacts on global sea level and ocean carbon uptake. To understand the significance of recent trends in the context of natural variability, it is important to consider change on a multi-century time scale. This proposal will focus on the past 2,000 years. In addition, we will take advantage of data and model outputs from earlier key time periods as they become available, such as the mid-Holocene, glacial terminations, warm interglacials, and the mid-Pliocene. Moreover, attribution of the causes of environmental change is a high priority. Assessment of how realistically climate models capture key forcings to help constrain climate model projections of future change. The overall aim is to provide improved projections of the magnitude and patterns of change to Antarctica’s physical environment as a result of global change over the next 100+ years. The assessment will be based on Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Assessment Report Five (AR5) Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) and updated scenarios as they become available.